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It’s a new world tomorrow

The world is about to change, for the better….

1967 and Israel wiped out the Egyptian air force in a single raid. Most of the Egyptian fighter aircraft disabled on the ground and none made it to the air – well, that’s the story anyway.

Into the Egyptian territories of Gaza and the Sinai Peninsula, whipped Jordan and kicked them out of Jerusalem and pushed right to the West Bank of the Jordan River. The fortified high ground of Syria’s Golan Heights as well.

That was three surrounding countries, all bigger, all with larger armies, all beaten off simultaneously. Not just beaten, but their air forces destroyed, armies pushed back and the war was over in just six days. Iraqi air force was chopped to bits as well.

WOW.

And the world crowed, cheering the success of plucky little Israel.

Truly, it did.

How times change huh?

The Arab world was pissed off, I mean, well pissed off, but what could they do? They were militarily impotent and frustrated as hell.

So they did something. Some bright spark came up with an idea of going after not Israel, but her supporters. Making life dreadful for everyone else until they started putting pressure on the hated enemy.

How? Easy, OPEC.

Now, OPEC had been founded in 1960, but no one had taken much notice until the Arab members roused it into action in 1973, after another fracas with Israel, the Yom Kippur war.

Then we noticed. Boy, did we notice, oil was cut back, prices jacked up, and we have been beholden to the oil exporters of the Arab world since.

These guys are rich, they are now very very rich. Ok, the people are not, not on a per capita GDP basis anyway, but some individuals are, and the governments have loadsa cash to play with. Cash which they don’t have to account to taxpayers for.

So, they use oil to threaten and intimidate, and cash to bribe and influence. How many universities world wide have established Islamic Studies departments with Saudi cash? Biased towards Arab viewpoints and Wahhabist ideology?

Cambridge (England) and Harvard (Mass)? Both traded their credibility for Saudi cash, and others.

Money has been spent, threats have been hinted at, friends have been made.

It all worked too, now, forty odd years later, who talks of plucky little Israel?

Apartheid Israel.

Racist Israel.

Warmonger Israel.

Nazi Israel.

What’s changed?

Oil, that’s what. Oh sure, part of it is the left hates success, and Israel is the lefts greatest (only?) success, but that’s bye the bye.

Oil buys influence, and Israel, free, open and democratic Israel, doesn’t have any and the thug states surrounding it do.

Ok, they don’t, but other Middle Eastern thug states do, and that’s what matters.

How much oil do these people have? How much oil is there?

Well, conventional reserves, world wide, are somewhere between 1 trillion barrels and 1.3 trillion. Of that, Saudi Arabia has 250 Billion barrels – between 20-25% of total conventional reserves (although, Saudi has been reporting those same reserve levels for years – they just don’t seem to deplete). Iraq has about 143 billion barrels, Iran has 138, and Kuwait has 104.

So, just this little group of Israel’s hatemongering and vitriolic enemies control over half the worlds confirmed conventional reserves of oil. That’s a lot of leverage.

We have all heard the old saw about how Moses should have turned right after his stroll across the Red Sea, rather than the left turn he actually took, plonking his chums down on the one spot in the entire middle east where there is no oil.

Or did he?

Now we get to non conventional supplies of oil.

Have you heard of oil shale? Oil held not in fluid reservoirs but impregnating shale? There is a lot of this stuff, a real real lot. America for instance, has an estimated 2 trillion barrels of oil locked up in oil shale. Yep, that’s right, 2 trillion barrels. Just the US, by itself, has an amount equal to about twice the worlds proven conventional reserves.

The US doesn’t dig the stuff up mainly for regulatory reasons, it is all locked away and the clean and cost effective extraction technology is only pretty new and the disputes are being worked out. However, one country has strong reason to cut through all that guff and get the industry moving.

israel-shale1Venezuela has about the same as the US, but given its (roughly) 300 billion barrels of cheap conventional reserves it is in no great hurry to exploit it, and ,next, is, well, Israel, with somewhere between 250 and 500 billion barrels in the Shfela Basin, south east of Jerusalem .

Yep, when it comes to oil shale Israel has reserves at least equal to those of Saudi Arabia and maybe equal to those of Saudi, plus Iraq, plus Iran.

Game change anyone?

Now, this stuff hasn’t been exploited in the past because it was both too costly and too environmentally damaging, but that has all changed. We now know how to extract the stuff without poisoning the land, and as long as prices are over $35 per barrel it can be done at a profit too.

And Israel has real and immediate reason to take advantage of its suddenly exploitable luck. Think of the game change if Israel can shaft OPEC and engineer a glut of oil on the market. Could Iran or Saudi cope if oil suddenly halved in price? To between $60 and $70 per barrel? They’d still make oodles of cash, but they have oodles of clients too, all sucking at that oleiferous teat. Loads of friends in both the Middle East and the West would suddenly find themselves cut off and having to work for a living.

Mosques in Dearbourn and Bradford, jihadis in Beirut and London, all thrown onto their own resources.

Politicians suddenly bereft of delightful gifts and holiday hosts.

Propaganda no longer financed.

Back to an era of cheap energy for world manufacturing and transport. God! Even more reason for the red Greens to hate Israel.

As a telling side issue, you know the oil majors aren’t involved? Apparently they aren’t working with this free and open society because they don’t want to take the risk of offending Muslims and being cut off from access to the thug states. The whole effort is being driven by Zionist (that is not a pejorative term on this site) businessmen such as Lord Rothschild and Rupert Murdoch.

16 Comments

  1. Lynne says:

    I hope you’re right, Cats. I really do. What a delicious game change that would be. :D

  2. RAB says:

    Britain has loads of shale gas to exploit too.

    So fingers out and let’s get Frakkin!

    The fly in the ointment are the Eco Fascists of course. But seeing as the Sun (you know that big yellow orb thing in the sky we get to see occasionally in Britain) seems to have gone into hibernation, no sunspots, and a period of global cooling is on the cards, the Eco loons are really on a hard sell for their fuckin windmills and solar panels now. Who’s going to want to pay massive Utility bills to subsidise their fantasyland crap?

  3. CountingCats says:

    RAB, this isn’t shale gas, it’s oil, different stuff, different process, different distribution. In Europe the gas is a problem for Russia. Doesn’t just diminish its influence, but shatters the leverage it had been planning on using in Western Europe. The oil tho? It changes world power dynamics.

    The really shitty thing is the USA has proven reserves of just over 20 billion barrels of oil, but estimated reserves of a further 110 billion barrels. Yep, the US has probably got total reserves equivalent to 50% of Saudi’s anyway, but it is all locked up in federal land and off shore, and that is without considering the shale oil. Barry, and GWB before him, refuse to allow drilling. Even announcing that drilling will be permitted would send prices crashing, but no. Sometimes I think the US has a deliberate policy of maintaining OPEC and its thug clients.

    As Sarah says, “Drill baby, drill.”

    BUT,
    Still, it is all game changing. the gas and oil means that we don’t HAVE to give money to those thugs who hate us, not for anything we have done, but for our values and principles.

  4. nisakiman says:

    Ah, that would throw the cat amongst the pigeons, Israel becoming a major oil producer! And profitable at above $35 a barrel? Lordy, the tree-huggers won’t like that! No more overpriced, inefficient bloody windmills? The hair-shirt brigade are going to riot!

    Mind you, much as I applauded Israel’s efforts in ’67, it buggered up my situation at the time. I was on my way to Lebanon with a (half-Lebanese) school chum, we’d hitched a lift outside Istanbul with a Swiss guy on his way to Bahrain (in a 1963 Cadillac convertible – amazing ride!), and when we hit the Syria border, it was “No Americans, no Brits and no Germans. Swiss were ok though, so he dropped us off there and continued his journey. Bummer in the summer! All part of life’s rich tapestry…

  5. Nelsontouch says:

    Any price drop means the OPEC states will have to open the taps and pump oil to feed their upspringing people.
    I suppose it means the price would drop to the level at which the shale oil is feasible. Below that and only a few projects will start.
    Interesting though. Would solve the world economic problem, I think, as we’ll have more to spend on nice things and not filling our tanks.

    I recall Menachem Begin hyping up the prospect of finding oil in Israel back in the 1980s. Nothing came of it then. I hope it’s right this time.

  6. RAB says:

    Thanks Cats, I do actually know the difference but didn’t explain myself properly. Britain has loads of unexploited energy deposits, but shale oil isn’t one of them, ours is the gas one.

    And what a difference a newscast makes. Your clip is informative and very optimistic. The one I saw only the other night on the local BBC news was about the abundance of shale gas deposits under the Mendips and the Cotswold hills. The rigid BBC luddite line was…

    Oh Noes!!! not the Cotswolds? you can’t despoil the Cotswolds!! Even as it was being explained to them that any despoilation would be kept to a minimum. Green in tooth and claw is the dear old Beeb.

    But the Beeb has also been running a four part series on objectors to Wind Farms in their neighbourhoods, for various reasons… Kills wildlife, looks ugly, despoils the landscape, is a noise nuisance, and doesn’t even fuckin work and costs a fortune in hidden subsidies that turn up on our Leccy bills. But the Beeb was cheering on the developers all the way. Nasty NIMBYists standing in the way of progress…

    The objectors lost of course.

  7. Its about time Israel got dealt a hand which wasn’t riddled with problems. As far as I am concerned, if this upsets, in any way whatsoever, our peace-loving Arab brethren, it couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch!

    Mazel Tov; Israel!

  8. Nelsontouch says:

    RAB – are you sure we don’t have shale oil in the UK? It was exploited commercially (though not successfully) in Somerset in the 1920s, I think. And on the south cost “Burning Cliff” is the name of a shale oil outcrop that caught fire and smouldered for years.
    Maybe what’s meant is that it’s not a viable souce. Coalbed methane now, that’s an option.

  9. RAB says:

    Well maybe we do Nelsontouch, but it wasn’t what was being discussed on our local news yesterday.

    We still have just plain old coal in abundance too, if we want to go back down and get it. We shut our coal mines not because of lack of quantity or quantity, but economic viability. Cheap imports from Poland and even Australia were beating us for cost.

    My grandfather was a Colliery manager in S Wales and Welsh coal is the finest in the world per energy to the ton, three quarters of the world’s Navies used to run on it, and I used to toast the back of my legs sticking them on the mantlepiece and reading something like Lord of the Rings to it. Wonderful stuff, and it’s still there in abundance. When will the penny drop with our fools and Masters and let us exploit it again?

  10. RAB says:

    That second quantity should be quality… I must be going blind.

  11. NickM says:

    Well, I gotta spin this around. You got a computer (obviously, otherwise you wouldn’t be reading this!), you gotta cellphone? Then you almost certainly have evil Zionist silicon. Israel was a country born with the good luck not to have much in the way of oil or similar. So was Switzerland, so was Singapore. Economic basket cases the lot of ‘em!

    Nations like Saudi are basket cases apart from the oil. It doesn’t take an enormous mental leap to suggest that oil + autocracy = fuckedness. Oil is the lazy man’s way to acceptable riches. Israel always had to be plucky instead. Consider the adult female literacy rates in Israel compared to say Saudi…

  12. Paul Marks says:

    From a national security point of view this oil shale must be developed as fast as possible.

    Any time now S. Power and the rest of the “Responsibility to Protect” team may support (or at least not veto) UN sanctions against Israel.

    It would be easy to whip up such a situation.

    Say thousands of Arabs march towards the border – Israel either does not fire (and is over run) or the IDF does open fire “YOU HAVE MURDERED ALL THESE WOMEN AND KIDS”.

    Time for the “Responsbility to Protect” to kick in – with Samantha Power (a fan of the Jew hating Jew Noam Chomsky – and the wife of Cas Susteen) to give Comrade Barack the word.

    “No need to fear the Jewish vote – they are less than one per cent of America, and the media will present Israel as monsters, so just do not veto sanctions…..”

    Oil sanctions are the obvious ones.

  13. CountingCats says:

    Paul, any such action would guarantee Obama a single term, and I think he might be starting to understand that now. Too many people who are not Jews can still tell the difference between genocidal theofascist neonazis and, well, sane people, like the Israelis.

    He is surrounded by people who think the 1967 borders are a good idea, and I think he was genuinely surprised by the level of opposition he found.

    As far as the oil goes, it will take years. Israel uses 250,000 barrels of oil a day, and they are hoping to have shale production up to 50,000 per day by the end of the decade. This won’t happen tomorrow.

    For reference, Saudi produces about nine million barrels a day.

  14. Laird says:

    Obama seems “genuinely surprised” by the level of opposition to many (most?) of his policies. I think that’s because (a) he’s not really all that bright (certainly nowhere near the genius his admirers would have you believe) and rather poorly educated to boot, and (b) he has surrounded himself with like-minded sycophants who tell him what he wants to hear, not what needs to be said. Item (b) is, of course, a direct consequence of Item (a).

  15. CountingCats says:

    I don’t think at the upper level they are like minded sycophants as much as they are fellow travelers who reinforce one another in group think. And I agree about his intellect. I see a skilled orator, but no sign of any sort of brilliant mind.

  16. Laird says:

    Fair enough, CC: I’ll accept your correction.

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