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So which bit does Cuba get? Florida?

My first reaction was why did the WSJ even bother printing this twaddle, it’s just some blokes late night power fantasy, but then I was pleased they did. Anyone who thinks Russia will be a resurgent power any time in the next twenty years is living in a fantasy world – and with people like this in positions of influence, you can understand where the fantasies are coming from.

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.


Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces — with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin’s ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country’s top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin’s English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin’s apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It’s much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Russia is turning into a nutcase.


H/T Mark Steyn


  1. NickM says:

    Utter bollocks. GA and FL or practically Norrthern States, Texas as part of Mexico? Moral degradation in the USA from Russia which is a country that for many years had it’s most effective form of contraception as a slice of lemon (it does work – just not very well) but that’s OK because they had the highest rate of abortion on the planet? Oh and revanchisim over McKinley’s folly!

  2. CountingCats says:

    Utter bollocks

    Gosh? Ya think?

    And on so many levels.

    A four way civil war? Texas falling into Mexico’s sphere of influence? Mexico falling into Texas’s sphere of influence more like it.

    Any one of those segments would immediately be a world power of greater influence than Russia, civil war or no civil war. And Russia would just walk in and take American territory during a full military mobilisation?

    This bloke is in charge of training Russia’s diplomats for freakin sake.

  3. NickM says:

    Well when it comes to civil wars… More Americans died in theirs than all other wars fought by the USA. So I think they will think very carefully before they try that one again. Russia though still has civil wars.

    Oh the idea that the overwhelmingly Protestant South will fall under the sway of Catholic Mexico is utter drivel.

    And what this Russky doesn’t get is that the USA is very united. Many of the populace of Atlanta or Miami are from the North. It’s a hard concept for a Russian raised on a diet of internal passports but it’s very common for an American to have one parent from Seattle, the other from Toledo and to have grown-up in Chicago and now be living in Sacramento.

    By which I mean America isn’t united by federal law as much as by civil society. A concept a Russky apparatchik is unlikely to get. Because like America Russia has a constitution though it’s a bit different. It’s totalitarianism moderated by assasination.

    I know Russia second-hand because… Well… My wife has lived in Moscow and Petersburgh. Curiously nowhere else because everywhere else is a hell-hole. She was offerred a job in Siberia and Googled the place and discovered living their was the equivalent to smoking forty Woodbines a day. Oh and the average male life expectancy was mid-50s. I also know it because I have rellies in Poland and they know Russia. Why do you think all these Eastern Europeans are such “up for it” members of NATO? You want the best customer service on the planet? Go to the Czech Republic. They are rolling over themselves in capitalism and it’s ace. And it’s a quid a pint for decent beer in Prague. The general idea is “fuck off Puttie-Poot”).

  4. CountingCats says:

    Nick, can’t even talk about this without feeling surrounded by tangerine trees and marmalade skies.

    Canada taking over the north midwest? Canada would be overwhelmed both economically and population wise from day one. They would be subsumed. The Pacific coast and adjacent states subjected to Japanese or Chinese sphere of influence?

    I really don’t think this bloke, and the people who listen to him, have the faintest idea how rich and powerful these places are. And yes, the USA is a socially united country, not a disparate empire held together by violence like wot the SovUnion was.

  5. RAB says:

    But what is really worrying is that this guy is supposed to be their big cheese expert, so what are the lesser dudes using for brains?
    Do you think he has ever actually been to the USA?
    Where is this mass immigration going to come from? Well at the moment it is mexico isnt it. That denotes a weak State with poor job prospects yet this idiot seems to think that Mexico will take over Texas!
    Moral degregation? I will be skating on the sea of fire with Satan when that happens!

    the guy is just a retro Nationalist. Very Milosovic. He cant see past his old Imperial ideas, that big countries will naturally take over smaller weaker ones.

    China will take over California?? Has he seen the size of the Pacific!
    The East Coast will join the EU? Bonkers!
    His fatal mistake is to assume stability in the rest of the world while the USA is busy disintergrating. Not very likely.
    I will predict war in Europe and the disintergration of the EU quicker that the end of the USA.
    And by 2010??? Bonkers, simply wishful thinking bollocks!

  6. CountingCats says:

    Well, the SovUnion fell apart didn’t it? About the same size as the US after all. If one can just spontaneously disintegrate then the other one surely can too, can’t it?

    Lets just ignore the economics, political structure and last hundred years of history shall we?

  7. RAB says:

    Heads up lads and lasses, Russia is about to turn the gas off to the Ukraine.

    They havent paid the bill apparently.

    Two Billion.

    No link it is just breaking… and so it goes.

  8. El Draque says:

    I think the EU will break up before the USA will.
    Sad git that I am, since 1999 I have been keeping an eye on the market price for government debt in the euro-zone. Italy and Greece are way above par, they are doomed to penury unless they split off and re-instate their currencies.
    So unless the Confederate dollar is brought back, the USA is safe. And that’s about as likely as the repayment of the Tsarist loans.
    Oh hang on, that happened in 1990 . . . . .

  9. PeterB says:

    Seriously, he thinks the Russians will get Alaska? They’ll have to go through Sarah Palin first. I don’t fancy their chances.

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