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Obama will win narrowly.


(a) Romney is useless. The rest were usually worse (apart from Gary Johnson) but Romney essentially proves the truth that in Land of the Blind the bloke with the Labrador is King.
(b) Obama has the media.
(c) Romney is gaffe-prone and is seen as a plutocrat who can’t be doing with the little-folk. Like Obama cares. See (b). But he is seen to care.
(d) The biggest thing Obama did domestically was create a health scheme that is a mirror-image of Romney’s. Romney can’t take him on that one.
(e) Romney looks like a standard Republican big-wig. Obama is oddly folksie. His “mongrel” comment went down a storm.
(f) Romney didn’t even win the Republican ticket last time and America don’t like losers.
(g) One of Obama’s key assets is Michelle. Who is Mrs Romney? Shouldn’t matter but it does.
(h) Romney is a Mormon so can’t play the religion card.

So Obama by a short-nose. He won’t win this. Romney will lose it.


  1. jameshigham says:

    Yes, it’s certainly looking that way.

  2. Bam-Bam says:

    Plus Obama’s black, thus more PC-friendly than Romney by default. Don’t know if his skin colour has ever been mentioned by anyone in the world before.

  3. Sam Duncan says:

    “Romney is gaffe-prone”

    No, Romney is seen to be gaffe-prone, due to his portrayal as such by the media. “b)“ is by far and away the biggest problem he has. As soon as his uncontroversial remarks about the London Olympic security fiasco were presented as a “gaffe” I knew he was in trouble. The total non-response from the legacy media over the Obama campaign’s tone-deaf new logo shows the problem. It may not be a hanging offence, but it is a gaffe, and would be pounced upon viciously if it had been the Republicans’.

    d) Well, yes. His best strategy would be to say that what works on the state level doesn’t necessarily translate to the federal. But it’s not a good position to be in.

    I still think he can edge it, but it won’t be anything like as easy as it should be, all else being equal. Don’t forget that Reagan had “blown it” in September 1980. And over here Kinnock was winning exit polls in ’92. There’s still a lot of time. But I’m not as hopeful as I was.

  4. GW says:

    America is spiraling downwards, and yet Obama is still close, if not in the lead. To date, this has all been about media spin. The real test for both candidates will be the debates, as it was with Carter and Reagan. At this point in 1980, Carter was in the same position as Obama. We will see.

    Bottom line, if Obama wins, the U.S. is toast. I can’t see us recovering in my lifetime, economically or with our original Constitutional form of government intact. And what will the world look like without a strong U.S. economy or military?

  5. Lynne says:

    I think this is a classic case, come election day, of neither of the above.

    Poor USA.

  6. CountingCats says:

    I truly don’t see Romney a being as bad as the press paints him, the gaffes simply aren’t. Don’t get sucked in by the propaganda of our enemies.

    The debates are still to come, and any well briefed candidate can wipe the floor with either Obama or Biden.

    Besides, Obama is losing it. His latest apology before the UN, for this film, will sicken loadsa people.

  7. Plamus says:

    Nick, I’ll offer this as a summary of your views (stolen from the comments at Marginal Revolution): “A few years back, the Democrats face(d) the task of unseating an unpopular president who was really hated by their base. For reasons known only to them they ran a unlikeable rich guy from Massachusetts against a President that they hated and they lost. Now the Republicans are trying to unseat a President that their base hates by running a unlikeable rich guy from Massachusetts. Wake me up when the story changes.”

    On the other hand, never forget that the presidential election in the US is not about the popular vote, but about the electoral college, and then look at this, with due reservations about Dick Morris, of course.

    The Biden vs Ryan debates should be fun too – much as I dislike Ryan for his catholic zeal.

    I do not profess to know the outcome, but I have a $100 bet with a coworker (Tea-partier) that Romney will win – he thought Romney would not be bold enough “to push back”. The big unknown, IMHO, is your point h). I have evangelical coworkers, and they seem to be okay with Romney, but they are far from a representative sample – highly intelligent (yes, they do exist) and informed. If the evangelicals stay home on election day, Romney is toast. How well he manages to walk the tightrope between evangelicals and independents is key. And he can err on either side.

  8. NickM says:

    Sorry this post was a bit rushed (I was away for the weekend). Yes, I appreciate Obama cn be 57 States of Gaffedom.

    What is an election but a propaganda campaign?

    Kerry and/or Dukakis?

    And Biden vs Ryan should be interesting as you say. I almost mentioned it but I was in a hurry. Could the inevitable evisceration of Joe swing this or is the VP-ship “not worth a pitcher of warm piss”?

  9. Sam Duncan says:

    Something that gets mentioned a lot on pro-Republican sites, and it’s hard to ignore, is that nobody who didn’t vote for Obama last time is going to do so in November. He hit his peak in 2008. He might retain his support, but his best hope for that, and the only chance for him increasing it, is from people voting for the devil they know. His own record simply isn’t going to get independents rushing out to ensure four more years of the same, let alone Republicans. Hence the campaign of trashing Romney’s competence with all the invented “gaffes” and so forth, and the bizarre charges of racism against the Republican Party as a whole.

    For all the talk of “Romney on the ropes” and all the President’s confident speechifying, it’s his campaign that looks the more scared of the two.

    Does this mean that he’s on course to lose? Of course not. Elections are weird (one reason I think they should decide as little as possible), and anything could happen.

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