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Election 13

For all you foreign types out there:

Latest polling data on the Australian election puts the seat of Griffith, held by Kevin Rudd, current holder of that revolving post known as Prime Minister, at risk.

Mr Rudd held the seat with an 8% margin at the last election, making it the safest ALP seat in Queensland. Right now though? The seat is in freefall, two polls in the last couple of days have had it as 48% ALP vs 52% LNP – the LNP being liberal/conservative contender against the labor/socialist Government. That is a 12% swing against the Prime Minister in his own seat.

This is the man the ALP bought back as leader because he was perceived as more popular than Julia Gillard, the previous incumbent.

True, on Mr Rudd’s resurrection, nationally the polls shot up to 50/50 for the ALP and the LNP, but that seemingly was just a sugar hit as the voters breathed a collective sigh of relief that Gillard was gone. Now though? As things stand today, the polls nationally are at 47% ALP, and 53% LNP – landslide territory. The Government could lose up to 20 seats, with the LNP gaining up to 22 – a couple of independents will be out. The LNP could end up with between 90 to 95 seats in a 150 seat House.

This election is being run in Presidential style, the ALP’s gamble that Kevin Rudd’s popularity, combined with attacks painting Mr Abbott, the LNP leader, as aggressive, boorish and desperate for power, has backfired. Kevin Rudd instead is being perceived in precisely that light while, the more he is in the limelight, Tony Abbott is coming across as a decent man.

The ALP is sliding by the day. The more the avuncular Kevin Rudd is out and about, the more people recall why the ALP dumped him in the first place, and the more support he loses.

Update:  Centrebet has the LNP on 1:1.07 and the ALP on 1:8.50.


  1. Mr Ed says:

    If he were a Labour politician in the UK, the postal votes would probably save him, like Ed Balls at the last election.

    Is that ‘revolving post known as Prime Minister, or ‘revolting post’?

  2. Fed up Fred. says:

    The lies and deceit propagated by the left in all its manifestations not being believed by the population at large is a refreshing change.
    Maybe the Tories in the UK can learn from Tony Abbott. He’s a man that stands for personal responsibility, self reliance and honest work, not for handouts nor scams like the climate change con.
    The voters have flocked to him.
    Would that we had someone if his ilk and not the craven, vacuous Cameron.

  3. John Galt says:

    The difficulty with the UK versus Australia is that the UK is further along the road of welfare dependency and therefore “flocking” is unlikely.

  4. Twenty_Rothmans says:

    The sad reality is that a Liberal government in Australia is essentially a Labor government run by people with better teeth and manners. My tax went _up_ under Howard. WTF?

    It astounds me that John Howard had – what? – twelve years to unstuff the country, and he failed comprehensively.

    To an extent, I admit, this owes a great deal to the congenitally retarded system that stacks the Senate unfairly and allows states to pursue their own agenda.

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