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Optimism – short term and long term.

I am sometimes (and quite rightly) accused of being gloomy – “reading a post from Paul is often like reading a suicide note”. So I have decided to write a very brief optimistic post.

Short term optimism….

Next year will see less of an obsession in music with Wagner, Verdi and Benjamin Britton – yes they all have great merit, but then have been done to death this year (anniversaries). So I am very much looking forward to 2014 (and less of them).

Also, in the United States, the midterm 2014 elections will go very well indeed and so will the 2016 elections – errr I will not go into the reasons why (this is supposed to be a non gloomy post).

The long term…….

The latter part of the 21st century will (I believe) be very good indeed.

The Welfare States will have gone bankrupt – which YES will lead to terrible suffering, but that suffering will be long over by the later part of the 21st century (it will just be a terrible memory – and for the young not even that). The same is true of the credit bubble financial system – yes it will have gone bankrupt, but in 50 years that will also be just a memory (and for the young – again not even that).

Technology will have come into its own in the latter part of the 21st century (it really will) the problems with such things as solar cells and nuclear FUSION (beyond fission) will have been solved and cheap electrical power will be available.

Also the technology of making things (including some materials) from common materials will be worked out by the late 21st century (yes nanotechnology – but not just that) – so people will no longer be so dependent on scarce raw materials. Also transport will have advanced to the stage where to travel anywhere in the world will only take a few hours – and power will be available to travel to the Moon or even the planet Mars.

Yes the supply of things will NOT be unlimited – but things will be a lot cheaper than they are now.

For those of you still alive in 50 years life will be good – very good. The coming collapse will NOT be like the fall of the Roman Empire – because the Romans did not produce a revolution in technology, our civilisation (in spite of its flaws) has done, and the technology WILL REMAIN and it WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOPED by free people in various parts of the world (oh yes the plans for “World Governance”,  world slavery, will fail – “international cooperation” between the elites of statists will, in fact, break down). Indeed the development in technology in the late 21st century will be astonishing – it truly will.

Now do your best to get there. To get to the late 21st century.


  1. John Galt says:

    Not so sure about the fusion, it’s been just around the corner for most of my life and we’re only arbitrarily close to the promises of “clean energy too cheap to meter”, I suspect when the great collapse comes we’ll abandon fusion research and end up with clean, safe fission reactors instead.

  2. Talwin says:

    The word ‘optimism’ led me, tangentially, to President Bill Clinton’s autobiography, in which he recalls talking with an important Jewish guy (can’t remember his position) who said of his forebears in pre-WWII Germany, the optimists went to the gas chambers, the pessimists ended up with swimming pools in Beverley Hills.

    How true.

  3. Mr Ed says:

    I agree with JG on fusion. I can’t foresee things coming together for fusion.

    And if you live theough the collapse, just imagine the Schadenfreude and sense of vindication (as your liver is extracted for a meal).

  4. You have a point John – and I am a fan of fission, But in my utterly ignorant way I continue to a carry a torch for fusion (I am even willing to consider solar – if they actually produce stuff worth looking at).

    But there will be massive developments in radically cheaper power – of that I am certain.

    Talwin – nice (in the old sense of the word).

  5. CountingCats says:

    There are a number of small scale (ie not tokomak) fusion research projects on right now, six or so are hoping to have commercial plants in operation somewhere between 2020 and 2025.

    Only one has to be viable…

  6. John Galt says:

    The problem with these fusion reactors is that it’s always jam tomorrow. Don’t get me wrong, I think the inertial confinement fusion approach is an interesting variation, but we’ve spent decades and hundreds of billions of dollars and the only thing we’ve learnt is that it’s bloody hard to make a fusion reactor, whereas what we could really do with is spending that money on making fission reactor designs cleaner and safer.

  7. john malpas says:

    Fusion – not needed. Between the Greens and their energy prblem , Islam and its preocupation with religeous purity and China doing whatever it will. There will be democracy of the universal ‘austerity is good’ for you kind.
    Oh and longevity will be rationed. For fairness sake.

  8. Lynne says:

    Meanwhile, everyone alive today is utterly Scammelled.

  9. I do not think so Lynne.

    I think most young children in New Zealand, or Utah (or many places) will grow up to have a good (and very long) life.

    Although they will have hard times in their youth.

    But perhaps no harder than people had in these places in the 1930s.

    As for someone who lives in Britain (such as me) – we are indeed doomed.

    Unless someone has a lot of resources or has special skills.

    I do not fit into either of these boxes.

  10. [...] am thankful that the future looks so bright! This entry was posted in By Ourselves, For Ourselves. Bookmark the permalink. ← [...]

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