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Borrowed Time

Via yesterday’s BBC (I do have other stuff to do y’know!).

Iran’s new parliament speaker has warned that it could set limits on future co-operation with the United Nation’s nuclear agency, the IAEA.
Former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said parts of the agency’s latest report on Tehran’s nuclear programme had been “deceitful” and “ambiguous”.

Oh, be still my splitting sides. Ali Laryngitis has got more front than Brighton. You gotta give him that.

Parliament will not allow that such deceptions are made, Mr Larijani said.

If they continue along this path, the new parliament will intervene in the case and set a new line for co-operation with the IAEA.

The comments drew chants of “God is great” and “Death to America” from the audience of MPs.

(My emphasis)

Yeah, right. That’s priceless. That’s more front than Pamela Anderson. Let’s claim we’re only doing this for peaceful purposes (as they do claim, all the fucking time hence Mr Laryngitis’s unfortunate throat condition) then celebrate this renewed commitment by threatening to obliterate a nation of three hundred million people. They must think we fell out of the banyan tree yesterday.

I have no idea how to deal with such nutters. There are many good people in Iran and I have no desire to see Persia Coventrated but if that does have to happen then it’s nutcases like Mr Laryngitis who must carry the can for it. I would like to see the Iranian people rise up and send these Dark Age lunatics to the lowest oubliette. If we can achieve that we must do everything in our power to aid dissenters within that currently benighted country.

If not, and if we can’t militarily decapitate the regime, then I fear the only answer is genocide – the complete and permanent destruction of Iran. Because, as with friend Saddam, we can’t keep such fuckers permanently “boxed”. Eventually the wheel will come off and there will have to be ructions.

This has to be tackled, like yesterday, because the IAEA is a toothless tiger and the above illustrates the Iranians have catheterized it and are proceeding to take enormous quantities of the piss*, and no leader in the Civilized World should even be allowed to contemplate the destruction of one of our great cities by these utterly deranged nutcases. If that happens those leaders shall have to carry the can for it (an easy can to recognize – it’s signed by Neville Chamberlain and Jimmy Carter – worth a few quid on eBay).

I do not mention genocide lightly (by which, of course, I mean a massive pre-emptive nuclear strike). I mention it because if it is a choice between London or New York or Tel Aviv being nuked or the appalling tragedy of millions of Iranian dead and the destruction of thousands of years of continuous Persian culture then for me it is a terrible but easy decision. There are many things in politics which can be achieved by compromise and negotiation but this isn’t one. The mullahs must demonstrably cease and desist or it’s time for Teddy’s big-stick. If we can we get smart and manage to help overthrow the regime then that would be grand but that must happen before Iran’s Trinity Test. There is a fixed point here. Iran, as currently constituted cannot under any circumstances be allowed to have nuclear weapons. If that means we are prepared to annihilate Iran then, tragically, so be it.

I would like to think that our leaders feel the same and are moving Heaven and Earth to prevent the ayatollahs getting nukes and are prepared to get fissionable about it, if it comes to that. I doubt it though, they mainly seem to be more pre-occupied with the gas that makes Coke fizzy rather than with the mullahs who might make the air uranious.

*Possibly to sell to China in exchange for missile technology. Tiger piss has to be worth something in traditional Chinese medicine.

5 Comments

  1. Concerned Student says:

    I’ve only just started reading your blog recently, having been pushed along to here by Samizdata I believe, but it’s a really good read I have to say, and the fact that you’ll come to the really contentious issues is refreshing.

    I can’t say I entirely agree with the point blank statement that you make, nuclear warfare is not something to make light of, though I definitely agree with the statement “cause if it is a choice between London or New York or Tel Aviv being nuked or the appalling tragedy of millions of Iranian dead and the destruction of thousands of years of continuous Persian culture then for me it is a terrible but easy decision.”

    There are other military options to explore before actually nuking the poor populace who suffer under a regime that doesn’t represent their large, and educated middle class. The Persians are far more civilised than the rest of that region :|

  2. DavidNcl says:

    Quite right. The appaling unwillingness of our political class to be seen as “hardline” increases dramatically the chances of the cities of Iran (and liklely other Islamic population centres) being H-bombed iat some point.

    Sadly, this will likey be a counter-strike rather than a pre-emptive action since I think our weak and feeble leaders lack the moral fiber to defend us.

    A successful Iranian strike with a first generation atomic weapon will likely kill on the order of 50k people. A western counter strike with “modern” fusion weapons; that is a real nuclear strike of the sort the we and Russians used to plan; would be a very different sort of thing. Attacking every Iranian population centre with a population in excess of 100k with a a 5-10 MT airburst, coupled with a like numbers of groundburst stikes against infrastruture targets will propably kill 35 – 50 million in the intial attack alone.

  3. Nick M says:

    Concerned Student,

    Thanks.

    I don’t think other military options are viable. As I said, I would like the regime toppled. One of the primary reasons it is still in place is that it had it’s grip on power strengthened following Saddam’s invasion in 1980. Think of it a bit like Maggie’s “Falklands Factor” then multiply it by shed-loads. Unlike many places in the ME Iran is a proper country with a history, identity and culture going back thousands of years. And there in lies the Chinese finger-trap. Invade or drop a few JDAMS and the regime will be stregthened because much though many Iranians don’t like their regime they are still Iranians and proud to be so.

    DavidNcl,

    Ncl=Newcastle? I’m a Geordie. We don’t use MT yield anymore. Modern ICBM/SLBMs are ~100KT but very accurate. We only deployed the old thermonukes because of accuracy concerns. trust me. a pattern of MiRVs across a population centre is vastly more destructive than a single MT device lobbed at it. Roughly the radius of destruction scales as the cube root of the energy of the device. A megaton is nowhere the same in terms of carnage and breaking things as 1000 independent kilotons blasts.

  4. DavidNcl says:

    Ah well Nick M (a fellow Geordie :) you might well be right. My knowledge of such things is stuck in the 70′s for the most part. However, I was under the vauge impression that most of “our” weapons had been debussed (because of the lunacy which is START II) so that instead of carrying multiple weapons which are then debussed and independently de-orbited onto their targets each missile can have only one warhead – so we’re back to dialing up the yield. Is this not correct?

    Hmm… Googling seems to indicate that De-Mirving may not have actually taken place because the Sov’s withdrew when Bush withdrew from the insane ABM ban treat.

    Anywhat you dice it:

    1) A few JDAMS will do fuck all except make them even more pissed off.
    2) Ground war and its aftermath would be much worse the Iraq.
    5) Better to force them stand down their nuclear efforts now even if it pisses off muslims the world over
    3) Otherwise a massive nulear strike is a likely option (with or without MIRV)
    4) That would much worse than many people reailse.

  5. DavidNcl says:

    Typo (don’t you hate that)…

    it should read:

    However, I was under the vauge impression that most of “our” weapons had been _de-MIRVED_ (because of the lunacy which is START II) so that instead of carrying multiple weapons which are then debussed and independently de-orbited onto their targets each missile can have only one warhead -

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